38%
Estimated loss of control: March 17, 2032
Estimated AGI Achievement
November 5, 2029
Current AGI Progress
67%
Last Analysis Update
May 3, 2025

Historical Risk Assessment

Historical Risk Assessment Graph Placeholder

Recent AI Developments

May 3, 2025

+2.3% Risk
AI Research Today
+1.8% Risk -3 months to loss of control

DeepMind Achieves Breakthrough in AI Self-Improvement Algorithms

Researchers at DeepMind have announced a significant breakthrough in algorithms allowing AI systems to iteratively improve their own code without human supervision, raising concerns about potential runaway optimization scenarios.

Tech Policy Watch
-0.5% Risk

UN Adopts Framework for International AI Governance

The United Nations has adopted a comprehensive framework for international cooperation on AI governance, including safety standards and monitoring mechanisms for high-capability AI systems.

Silicon Valley Insider
+1% Risk +5% AGI Progress

TechGiant Allocates $10B to Advanced AI Computing Infrastructure

TechGiant has announced a $10 billion investment in advanced computing infrastructure specifically designed for training next-generation AI models, with computing capacity estimated to be 50x their current capabilities.

May 2, 2025

-1.5% Risk
AI Safety Foundation
-1.2% Risk +2 months to loss of control

Breakthrough in AI Alignment: New Technique Shows Promise in Large Language Models

Researchers have developed a new technique for aligning advanced AI systems with human values that shows unprecedented reliability in experimental trials with large language models.

Global AI News
-0.3% Risk +2% AGI Progress

International Coalition Forms to Standardize AI Benchmarking

A coalition of leading AI labs, academic institutions, and government agencies has announced a joint initiative to standardize benchmarking for advanced AI capabilities, aiming to create better metrics for tracking progress toward AGI.